Orbix is a prediction exchange where
Binary markets on real events, matched on a fully on-chain order book and settled in USDG on Robinhood Chain. Anyone can open a market. Nobody can touch the vault.
Orbix
LIVE · MAINNET
Volume multiplied five times in 2025, then a single month of 2026 matched the whole of last year. The two leaders are now valued above $30 billion combined and one of them is running at a $4 billion annual fee rate.
Kalshi $31.5B plus Polymarket $10.8B, pushed by the World Cup. More than triple the monthly handle of every legal US sportsbook.
$44.8BKalshi $22B (May 2026 round) and Polymarket $9B. Kalshi is now raising at $40B, Polymarket at $15B.
$31B+$263.5M in fees for all of 2025, $850M in 2026 by June, above $10M a day at peak. Run rate hit $4B in July 2026.
$4BUSD notional. The third bar is one month, not a year.
One month of 2026 now equals all of 2025. Monthly volume was $1.2B in early 2025 and crossed $20B by January 2026.
Aggregated across Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US, week of Aug 25, 2026.
One is a regulated US exchange that holds your funds. The other settles on-chain but matches orders off-chain on Polygon, with an optimistic oracle deciding results. Neither is a protocol anyone can build on, market-make on, or verify end to end.
Robinhood Chain is fast enough to run a full central limit order book inside the program. So the matching, the vault, the oracle read, the dispute and the payout all happen in one place, and every event can be replayed from the chain. Open to any creator, any market maker, any front end.
Sources: Sportico and CNBC (June 2026 volume), Phemex and KuCoin (2025 totals, share), CoinDesk and DeFi Rate (valuations), InGame and Crowdfund Insider (fee revenue), TRM Labs (wallets, monthly run rate), DeFi Rate tracker (weekly figures, open interest, live markets), Pew Research.
Every market has an explicit expiry and an oracle data source fixed at creation. Trading is open until expiry, then the oracle delivers Yes or No.
Each market mints YES and NO. A winning share redeems for 1 USDG, a losing one goes to zero. Hold them, transfer them, sell them back into the book.
The YES price is the crowd's live estimate. Prices run from 0.001 to 1.000 USDG and always add up to one, because anyone can mint or redeem a pair at par.
The complete set anchors the entire price system. One YES plus one NO is worth exactly one dollar whatever happens, so P(Yes) + P(No) = 1 and any drift is a risk-free arbitrage that pulls prices straight back.
An ordinary order book keeps the YES side and the NO side in two disconnected pools. Orbix uses the YES + NO = 1 identity to merge them: when a bid for YES and a bid for NO add up to at least one dollar, the protocol mints a complete set and hands one half to each buyer.
| Dimension | Orbix | Polymarket | Centralized desks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chain | Robinhood Chain, sub-second, cent-level fees | Polygon | None |
| Matching | Fully on-chain CLOB | Off-chain matching, on-chain settlement | Centralized |
| Liquidity | Order book plus cross matching (implied mint and redeem) | Single-sided CLOB | Order book |
| Capital efficiency | YES and NO depth merged, about 2x | One side at a time | Varies |
| Resolution | Locked oracle feed, staked dispute vote, DAO review | UMA optimistic oracle | Platform decides |
| Custody | Program-owned PDAs, no admin path to funds | On-chain | Platform holds funds |
| Transparency | Every state change logged, replayable from chain | Partly off-chain | Opaque |
| Who can create | Anyone, with a 300 USDG deposit | Team-listed | Platform only |
Creator stakes a deposit of at least 300 USDG and locks the oracle feed and rules.
DEPOSIT ≥ 300 USDGLimit and market orders, cancel any time, mint and redeem sets at par.
UNTIL EXPIRYAfter expiry anyone can trigger the Switchboard read that writes the preliminary result.
150-SLOT FRESHNESSAnyone who thinks it is wrong stakes a challenge. 1 USDG is 1 vote; the losing side's pool pays the winners.
24H WINDOW · 48H VOTEWinning tokens redeem the vault's USDG. Losing tokens go to zero. DAO review only if escalated.
1 WIN = 1 USDGOnce every claim is done and the vaults are empty, the creator closes the market and gets the deposit and all account rent back.
DEPOSIT + RENT REFUNDEDtaker fees (0.2%) + cross-match surplus
When a cross fill lands inside the spread, the difference goes to the protocol. Users already got price improvement, so nobody is worse off.
Every taker fee is split three ways on mainnet. Makers and creators claim their share straight to their wallet.
Orbix is live on Robinhood Chain mainnet with USDG settlement. Market makers earn a rebate on every fill, creators earn on every trade in their market, and any front end can plug into the program.